Chinese trade figures have taken a worrying turn, with imports tumbling 8.4 per cent over the first two months of the year.
This decline, which predates the full impact of President Trump’s newly imposed 20 per cent levy on Chinese imports, undershot economists’ expectations of a modest rise. Although exports grew by 2.3 per cent, down from 10.7 per cent in December, they still fell short of the 5 per cent forecast.
Analysts cite a confluence of factors. Stockpiling of foreign goods may have slowed amid concerns over tariffs, but cyclical weaknesses and lacklustre consumer spending also played a part, according to consultancy Capital Economics. China’s trade surplus reached $170.5 billion in January and February, about $20 billion higher than many had anticipated.
Beijing lumps January and February data together to smooth out distortions caused by the lunar new year. Even so, US-bound sales rose by only 2.3 per cent year-on-year, compared to 4.9 per cent in December, while exports to the European Union slowed to 0.6 per cent from 3 per cent. Tech goods such as semiconductor chips and data processors posted growth, but consumer-facing categories like clothing and furniture suffered marked falls.
President Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods — introduced in mid-February and early March — pose a fresh risk to China’s export-led growth model. Trade tensions come at a time when Beijing has unveiled an economic support package at its annual ‘Two Sessions’ meetings, reaffirming its 5 per cent growth target for 2025 and raising the budget deficit to 4 per cent of GDP.
Kelvin Lam of Pantheon Macroeconomics warns that exports, a major pillar of China’s economic expansion, “are likely to face severe challenges this year” if the dispute with Washington escalates. Lynn Song, chief greater China economist at ING, says the true impact of tariffs will surface “gradually in the coming months”, unless the US and China manage to reach a deal or secure another delay.
For the moment, policymakers in Beijing appear resolved to shore up growth through stimulus, but with the US showing no sign of softening its stance, the coming months may reveal just how resilient China’s export engine really is.
